Brain Waves: CCC Crew Roundtable
Brain Waves features a roundtable discussion with CCC Crew members. Featured members: Patrick Evans, D'Marcus Beatty & Adam Brown.
Patrick Evans: Christmas shopping season is right around the corner, and I know that everyone is excited about the next-gen console war. While it may be difficult to decide a winner before launch, that doesn't mean we can speculate, right? First up, Nintendo's little monster, the Wii.
Adam Brown: The first major advantage the Wii will have over its competitors is in the price category. The Wii is going to come in around 200 or 250, making it easier to purchase. This should help people overlook the not so jaw-dropping visuals.
Patrick: What about the lack of HD? Why does Nintendo insist in staying old-school? Why so reluctant to advancements in visuals?
Adam: I think it is because Nintendo wanted to keep the price of their system down to make it more accessible. While the system won't be graphically on-par with the 360 or PS3 it will be capable of slightly better than Xbox-level graphic. Also I don't believe that Nintendo thinks that HD TVs are widespread enough to charge more for the improved graphics.
DMarcus Beatty: The recent debacle with the text in Dead Rising shows that HD just isn't that prevalent yet. A lot of gamers haven't made the jump to HD, and they probably won't until HD television prices come down.
Patrick: But HD prices ARE on the way down and companies will likely avoid repeating the mistakes of Dead Rising.
Adam: While they are lower than they were they are still high enough that it could potentially scare away some of the non-gamer crowd Nintendo is trying to entice with its new system.
DMarcus: Dead Rising proves a point. Capcom probably didn't expect so many people to have a problem with reading the text in their game, or I don't think they'd have made it so that it could only be read in HD.
Patrick: Going back to the non-gamer. Nintendo has been going after the non-gamer forever it seems, but they can only capture them on handheld. Why do they think the Wii-mote will change things for them on console? Gamers in the traditional sense are going to flock to the HD games because of their slick visuals, and they don't get any slicker than on PS3.
Adam: First, because it looks more like a television remote. Stereotypically speaking an old person may be afraid of a computer but they probably use their TV remote all the time.
Patrick: But older people aren't spending the money in this industry right now.
Adam: Exactly, but I think Nintendo really wants to change that. Nintendo keeps preaching about expanding the industry and since old people don't buy that many games now they are a wide open market.
Patrick: Which system do we see doing the best this Christmas shopping season? Do we think PS3 will overcome its price tag and ship all its units? Do we think Wii will capture the non-gamer?
DMarcus: I think that the PS3 has really overstepped itself. There's no doubt that its the most technologically advanced system, but in reality, most gamers just won't be able to afford it, especially if the rumor about the games costing more than $60 is true.
Patrick: Let's look at this from a value standpoint. The PS3 is offering something that neither Xbox nor Wii can offer, Blu-ray. The battle lines for the format war is drawn but early adopters will gobble up the PS3s just for a cheap Blu-ray player.
DMarcus: But consumers haven't chosen a side in the HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray war yet. While PS3 is a cheap Blu-ray player, it's still an expensive gaming machine.
Adam: I have actually heard some rumblings about people playing HD-DVD and Blu-ray movies side by side and saying that the HD-DVDs looked slightly better.
Patrick: I've heard that too, but you can't get past the sheer storage capacity that the PS3 will have because of it. The amount of content available to fit on a single disc will be outrageous.
Adam: Initially I don't think the storage space is going to help the PS3. Most of the games are going to look exactly like their 360 counterparts. In the long run however it will help when they start packaging movies and games together. The only reason it (PS3) looks as cheap as a Blu-ray player is because Sony made their other Blu-ray players insanely expensive too.
DMarcus: I tried to preorder a PS3 at GameStop, and was told that they weren't even sure that they were taking preorders. Sony will be facing shortages even if people are willing to pay 500-600 dollars for their system.
Patrick: That's my point exactly. There will be more than 2 Million Blu Ray players in the market day one because the PS3 will go like crazy. It's riding a brand name that is insurmountable. Playstation is synonymous with gaming.
DMarcus: And I don't see the average consumer casually buying a PS3. How many parents are willing to shell out 500+ dollars on one present?
Patrick: If their kid only wants a PS3 for Christmas, I can see it. But there is no doubt that this is a steep price tag.
DMarcus: Oh, I don't have any doubt that Sony will sell out. But there are consumers that will be on the fence, and will be dissuaded by the price and the shortages. I've heard many people say that they are going to wait until a price drop.
Adam: But look at the PSP. They may not want to hold their breath on that price drop.
Patrick: What kills me is that everyone points to Kazuo Hirais statement about games over $60 and thinks its a bad thing. We all know that games are becoming more and more expensive to develop. Its silly to imagine that the price of a game would remain at $50 or $60 forever.
DMarcus: But games just went up to $60 with the release of the X360, and it's asking too much of gamers to jump even more. Usually price increases are more gradual.
Adam: Yes but now they are $60 plus, and once you add in the downloadable content it could get very expensive very quickly. While being good idea, microtransactions for downloadable content may get out of hand.
Patrick: It could get outrageous, but that's where the market stands in and says, No, we dont want to pay out of the nose for extra junk. Oblivion did well enough with its downloadable content. If Sony is going to make its service free to begin with, I don't see why microtransitions would be out of the question.
DMarcus: Well, what about exclusives? It's rumored that both Mercenaries 2 and Assassin's Creed are making their way to X360. The only really high profile games the PS3 has are MGS4 and FFXIII and Resistance: Fall of Man. Why pay more for a game on PS3 when you can get it on X360 for less? I found an article online at Gamersreport.com, let me quote: According to the investment firm NikkoCitiGroup, Capcom shipped 320,000 copies of Dead Rising in its first week and Capcom has forecasted shipments to reach 450,000 units by today. NikkoCitiGroup then went on to speculate that the healthy sales of Xbox 360 titles may prompt Capcom to take current PS3-exclusive titles cross-platform.
Patrick: Do we know that the PS3 port will be more? Would a publisher be dumb enough to do that? I don't know about you guys, but I don't see consumers looking at a PS3 and think they are losing out by buying one. The tech inside is terrific, and Sony always make's their systems profitable after a couple years of manufacturing.
DMarcus: But can they say that they're getting the best value for their money? Honestly, they can have almost two systems for the price of one.
Patrick: But they can. The other two dont have the raw power that the PS3 will push. Just because developers havent tapped the power here doesnt mean it isnt there.
DMarcus: But the consumer only sees what is shown to them.
Adam: I think the PS3 has long-term potential but as it stands now, especially with their poor E3 showing, I think that Sony is going to have their hands full with the 360 and Wii this year.
Patrick: I agree. The PS3 won't be a runaway winner. But at the same time, if they (consumers) haven't researched the PS3, Wii, and 360 to know what the games look like they are probably ignorant enough to go simply with the name-brand of Sony. The PS3 will ride the success of the PS2, which outsold both the Xbox and Gamecube combined.
Adam: I think many consumers will be put off of it initially because of the price tag. Even if they want one will they be able to find one any where near launch?
Patrick: Sony says that four million will be ready for the first of the year right? The only thing that scares me is the PS3's E3 showing. It seems like the PS3, if it doesn't fulfill the hype, will be like a Tyson fight. If the boxer was good enough to get past the first rounds, they could win by attrition.
Adam: The PS2 was an awesome console that I was happy to own, but when it initially came out it didnt really out-perform the Dreamcast. I wasnt very impressed until GTA 3 came out.
DMarcus: The Xbox 360 does have a head start, and as such has more games. PS3 is going to have to compete with Gears of War and Mass Effect at the beginning of the year, both of which look gorgeous.
Adam: The PS3 just needs that one beautiful killer exclusive and right now they don't.
Patrick: It will hurt them for a year maybe, maybe but the hype of Blu-ray will keep them moving units I think they will ride the Blu-ray wave until their first killer-ap hits and then they ride that until developers tap the true power. I see nothing that can convince me otherwise.
Adam: Is Blu-ray a heavily anticipated thing outside of the game industry or is it just for people in the know?
DMarcus: The average consumer probably doesn't think they need Blu-ray.
Patrick: Blu-ray gets ad time on TV as we speak, but I dont see a thing for HD-DVD anywhere.
DMarcus: Most of the people I know that aren't avid gamers don't even know that Blu-ray is coming. The PS3 and Blu-ray are going to be sold to the technologically adept, not the average consumer.
Adam: Many people have finally just finished upgrading to DVDs I don't know if the average consumer is going to be willing to shell out tons of money just to re-buy their movie collections in a potentially slightly better format.
Patrick: So where do we see the systems going this fall? Do we know how many Wiis will be ready? We have an estimate, but are we any closer to an exact price on the next-gen Nintendo console? (Editor's note: When this roundtable discussion took place, this info was still unknown.)
Adam: No exact price still, just the under 250 motto they keep giving. I also havent heard a price point for any of the Wiis accessories, but I think the controllers are actually supposed to be fairly cheap. I also believe that there will be enough Wiis for anyone who wants one because it is so similar to the Gamecubes structure. (Editor's note: The Wii goes on sale November 19th for $249.99 and will come with Wii Sports.)
Patrick: From where I stand, it seems like Xbox 360 may be in the driver's seat here, but they still can't get decent-enough support from Japan because they can't sell there. There are so many great games that come out of Japan that will find their way exclusively to the PS3 or Wii (If it's Nintendo developed).
DMarcus: That's my stance too. Xbox 360 already has market penetration, Xbox Live is going strong, and Microsoft is releasing the camera and Gears of War before the holidays.
Adam: Yeah I think it would take a lot for Microsoft to start doing well in Japan. You'd think the 360s carried a plague they are selling so badly. I believe the Gamecube is still outselling it.
Patrick: What I fear for Xbox is that it falls into its old form last gen. The best games on that platform will only be American or European developed, plus a handful of PC Ports.
Adam: They need to get more exclusive games that would appeal to the Japanese market.
DMarcus: That is their weakness. But with games like Enchanted Arms and Blue Dragon designed by famous Japanese developers, hopefully that will change. Also, Microsoft will be drawing in the modders with their XNA
Patrick: I don't play flash games now, why would I want to play Jimmy Shmuck's homebrewed game for 5 or ten bucks on Xbox Live? Sounds nice, but I don't see it being that great.
DMarcus: But that's still a market that they're reaching. A lot of modders are excited about it. The simple Geometry Wars has sold like crazy. Who knows if the next Geometry Wars is in the mind of some unknown?
Adam: True, and much better games like Gears of War, Lost Planet, BioShock and Mass Effect coming down the line too so it looks better on the not to distant horizon.
Adam: I hope it is more successful than the Net Yaroze.
Patrick: The only thing that kills me now about Xbox Arcade is the cruddy ports they are pushing. Galaga and PacMan were borderline offensive, where's the additional content Namco?
DMarcus: But even the cruddy ports are fairly cheap, and there are free demos of everything imaginable. Thats what I love about Live.
Adam: I agree old Atari games, while awesome and still fun, don't merit the 5-10 price tag.
Patrick: We could argue on this for days, but lets bring it to a simpler answer. D'Marcus, you see Xbox doing the best this season?
DMarcus: Yes. They're already established in households, have great games on the horizon (Gears of War), great accessories, (camera), and is 200 cheaper than the more powerful PS3.
Patrick: I honestly see 360 outselling the others if they can get enough on store shelves, at least in the States, but the PS3 looks to be tough to beat long term, especially with all the great Japanese exclusives that will start coming six to 12 months after launch, a weak launch didn't kill the PS2, so why expect it on the PS3? What do you got Adam?
Adam: The hype for the Wii is so strong at this point, add that to the cheaper price tag an innovative controller, tons of exclusives, and the virtual console and I think that Nintendo has a very good plan for success this season. 
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