Video Game Foresight - When You’re Right, You’re (Kind of) Right

Video Game Foresight - When You’re Right, You’re (Kind of) Right



I've been writing this column for a couple months now, making wild predictions about the future of the video game industry. While it's much too early to confirm or deny most of my predictions, there is one in particular that I feel quite entitled to boast about.

In my article "The Wii's Swan Song" (check it out here), I talked about Nintendo's pattern for releasing new consoles. My argument basically boiled down to this: whenever a Nintendo console releases its second Zelda title, you're pretty much guaranteed to see a brand new console emerge within a year or so. My ultimate conclusion was that Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword was heralding a new Nintendo console. In fact, here are my exact words: "According to Nintendo's formula, this puts the Wii's follow-up for a late 2012/early 2013 release."

Video Game Foresight - When You’re Right, You’re (Kind of) Right

Even though I backed it up with some overwhelming evidence (a history of release dates of Zelda titles and corresponding console release dates), the basic thesis seemed a bit far-fetched. I mean, the release of Skyward Sword seems like a silly thing to base speculation of Nintendo's future on, especially when there is plenty of other evidence to look at. For example, the PS3 and Xbox 360 both have motion controls now, and with much more power than the Wii, they're pretty much rendering the Wii obsolete. Another piece of evidence you could look at is the weak trickle of Wii games in 2011.

But I stuck with the whole Zelda argument, nonetheless.

Nintendo has come out with this statement: "Josh was right."

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Okay, so that's a pretty huge exaggeration. Nintendo hasn't said anything official yet, and no one at the company has specifically mentioned my name. But there is an industry rumor that a new Nintendo console is on the way and should be here in 2012. What year did I predict? 2012. (Okay, people who actually read the aforementioned article will point out that I was skeptical that the new Nintendo console would be out in 2012. I actually predicted that Skyward Sword would be delayed until 2012 and the new Nintendo console would debut in 2013. I may have been a little overcautious. But hey, why are you trying so hard to knock me off my high horse? I'm trying to gloat here.)

Video Game Foresight - When You’re Right, You’re (Kind of) Right

So basically the Wii 2 (or the Wiiii, or the SuperWii, or the Nintendo Dolphin, or whatever they decide to call this thing) will be out in 2012, and it's apparently going to be more powerful than the PS3 or the Xbox 360. We can expect to hear more details at E3 this year. Huzzah!

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