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Wedbush Morgan industry analyst Michael Pachter revealed in an interview via IndustryGamers what he thinks Microsoft’s Natal and Sony’s EyeWand will cost when they hit retail. Pachter sees Natal retailing for just $50, while the EyeWand will likely go for around $100 by his estimation. Pachter stated specifically, “As for pricing, each has to keep the consumer’s cost relatively low in order to achieve broad penetration. I think that Natal will cost $50, as it only really involves a camera (a three-lensed camera, but a camera nonetheless). The EyeWand, on the other hand, involves a camera and two controllers, so it may be slightly more expensive. I would be surprised if the EyeWand retails for more than $100. Neither impacts the other, as neither is intended to compete with the other.”
While I typically hold a lot of stock in Pachter’s specula tion, this time I think he’s very far off the mark. For starters, we’ve already had warnings issued from Microsoft itself that Natal would start out at an inflated price and work its way down. Second, Microsoft sells wireless network adapters for $100 – more than double the cost of comparable devices. Third, there is a whole lot of interest surrounding Natal. The demand upon release will be off the hook. There’s likely several million Xbots that would gladly pay upwards of $100 for Natal at launch. Why would Microsoft miss out on that revenue? Furthermore, the Sony EyeWands are just another set of controllers, albeit highly specialized ones. Gamers will not want to pay more than the $54.99 they’re currently paying for a DualShock 3. If you remember back to the E3 2009 demo at the Sony media event, two EyeWands were used to shoot arrows and for fighting with a sword and shield – paying $200 to get this experience is likely too pricey. Pachter sees two EyeWands and the EyeToy getting bundled together for just $100. In this circumstance, I think Sony is underselling their products by at least $25. While a value bundle does make sense, the gear should also be sold separately – and there shouldn’t be such a stark contrast between bundled and standalone purchases. That being said, Pachter is the wizard, so I may just eat crow. However, I won’t believe it till I see it. |
