Here’s an interesting question for you. First, consider two people: the first is a veteran sports analyst, with degrees specializing in statistics, game theory, and media. This analyst has studied, analyzed, predicted, and commentated football games for decades, and when it comes to patterns of offense and defense, no one is as competent as he or she. Now consider a professional football player; any that comes to mind will do. Now the question: which one knows the game of football better? Who has a clearer vision for the direction the league is going and how players and coaches might react to changes in protocol, to strikes, or to new trends?
I’ve been thinking about this lately because of a certain name I keep seeing in the headlines. There’s an analyst by the name of Michael Pachter that, months ago, I knew absolutely nothing about. I wish I knew nothing about him now, but, as I’m paid to keep an eye on all of the breaking news, it’s been impossible lately to keep his name out of my mouth. It seems the man has something to say about everything happening in our industry right now; an answer for every question; a prediction for the future of every company that affects us as video game hobbyists.
I suppose I’m not as annoyed by Pachter and what he does as I am with our community’s recent obsession with his predictions. He doesn’t put himself in the headlines every time he makes a prediction or states the obvious, so I’m here to ask you: Why are we betting on and accepting as gospel truth the words of a man who has as much control over the direction of this industry as an analyst has over the outcome of a football game?
It’s the headlines that read “Nintendo’s NX Already Doomed to Fail,” and “No Way Xbox One can Catch Up to PS4” that are starting to get to me. Those types of headlines have been especially widespread of late, and they all have these conclusive, “so sayeth Pachter” tone to them that’s really starting to piss me off. Why is this news, and why are fanboys on any side of any console war using this as ammunition? These “predictions,” once you read the details, are absolute rubbish, anyway. Pachter has given the NX a 60% percent chance of success, assuming it can garner third-party support. Could he have made a safer bet? He’s practically giving it a 50-50 chance of succeeding based on something that we all know the Wii and Wii U were missing. And for over a year now the PS4 has been outselling the Xbox One 2-to-1. Do we need an analyst to tell us that the Xbox One isn’t going to catch up? This isn’t breaking news, this is common sense, and we as gamers and hobbyists have more important things to talk about: exclusives, cpu optimization, the future of classic games, ethical pricing and DLC, etc.
Michael Pachter is an educated man, I’m not here to dispute that. When it comes to macroeconomics and the analyzation of financial trends he’s the guy to go to, not me. I don’t have my MBA, I don’t have two law degrees, and I don’t think that kind of education is in the cards for me. If some company is about to make its initial public offering, even a video game company that I’ve supported for years through my purchasing decisions and promotion, I’m going to consult Pachter; I’m going to listen to what he has to say and count on him to make an accurate prediction regarding the outcome.
Don’t forget, though, that your dollar and your word have the final say; they direct this industry. Gamers, the gaming community, the press that informs them… our conversations amongst ourselves as people intimately involved in the industry in ways an analyst cannot duplicate – with a passion and history of experience that cannot be emulated – these will determine our futures; to them be the glory and power forever and ever; the prophecies of Pachter be damned.